Electric cars are about to cost less than those of gasoline

Amador Palacios
3 min readMar 1, 2021

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Indeed, in recent years car batteries have lowered their prices in surprising ways and are bringing the price of electric cars closer to that of gasoline cars.

Until now, electric cars were sold based on incentivizing their purchase by eliminating taxes, but that is about to change.

According to the estimates published in the media, between 2023 and 2025 the price of electric cars will be equal to or lower than that of their gasoline counterparts, and most expect that this will be the turning point for their sales to increase in an important way.

Because so far there is only one country where they buy more than gasoline, that country is Norway and they achieve this by eliminating taxes at the time of purchase.

Because let’s not fool ourselves, despite the fact that sales of electric cars grew a lot in the world, the harsh reality is that in 2020 only 4.2% of all cars sold were electric. And that is fundamentally due to its high sale price.

And the most important component of its cost is the battery. Depending on the cars, the battery can cost between 30 and 50% of the total value of the same. Therefore lowering the price of batteries is essential for these cars to start selling without “help”.

On the other hand, batteries have a useful life of about 3,000 recharge cycles, which is about 8 years of use, and is the most important part of the maintenance cost of an electric car.

That is, the price of batteries will depend on the massive implementation of these cars.

The good news is that those prices are falling dramatically, and are expected to continue to do so more quickly.

At the beginning of 2020 the cost of a battery was 160 e / kWh, with an estimated cost of 80 e. in 2024 and 60 in 2030.

And experts say that from 100e./Kwh batteries are already profitable without tax aid, so we are 2 or 3 years away from reaching that turning point.

Another point that concerns users is autonomy and this is becoming more and more widespread. There are continuous announcements of new types of batteries with recharge times of minutes and autonomies of hundreds of kilometers. It is our daily bread in this market.

This is a big business to deal with and everyone is researching new batteries: with less cobalt to make them cheaper, solid state ones, etc …

Because otherwise it seems that the electric car has many advantages, from fewer breakdowns to greater user satisfaction (91% are satisfied with their purchase), and without forgetting that it does not pollute when it circulates.

Dear friends, we are very close to seeing a profound shift in the car paradigm. Many new features are announced and there are many new “players” who want to take a share of this huge market.

It is not clear who will survive in 20 years or more, but those who do will have to work hard to achieve it.

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Amador Palacios
Amador Palacios

Written by Amador Palacios

I am an electronic engineer with more than 40 years working in industry. I like to reflect on Technological and Social issues

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